The Karabakh conflict has always been and continues to be the most important issue for Armenia. According to Tert.am, the head of the analytical center “Modus Vivendi” Ara Papian said this at a press conference in Yerevan today.
He noted that the hype which has risen around the settlement of the conflict is not accidental, because “we are moving into some kind of final stage”.
“What is now on the table, and more specifically – “territories in exchange for peace”, is not a new approach. It goes back to 1993, then was mentioned in the Madrid Principles of 2007, and then in the Kazan document. But now we are much more concerned, as we enter into the final phase. The time has come to fulfill the promises made by the presidents”, – said Ara Papian.
According to political analyst, the transfer of territories is unacceptable, because this step will draw Armenia even closer to a large-scale war. Ara Papian said that on the other hand, the role of Russia has increased so that it is trying to use the Karabakh issue as a platform to solve its own problems. Therefore, it is possible that the issue will be delayed until the Karabakh issue will no longer serve as a platform for the Russian Federation.
“Russia is seeking to appease, tempt Azerbaijan to join the Eurasian Economic Union. In such circumstances, we must substantially, radically change the foundation, the essence of the negotiation process, and to cancel the “territory for status” approach. Trade-off is out of the question. The so-called compromise is not equivalent, and can never be equivalent”, – emphasized the political analyst.
Ara Papian noted that the region witnesses interesting developments, the allies of countries are changing, for example, Turkey, which has always been an ally of the West, is now on the verge of leaving the NATO. And Armenia, according to him, can take advantage of tensions between Turkey and the West, and increase its role in the region. At the same time, according to the analyst, there are growing prospects in the relations between Turkey and Russia, quite dangerous for Armenia.
If Armenia will continue to adhere to exclusively pro-Russian orientation, it will lose Nagorno-Karabakh, the analyst believes.
“We will lose Karabakh, if we will continue to stick to exclusively pro-Russian stance. After all, the largest suppliers of arms to Armenia – France and Germany – are members of NATO. The West does not need the autocratic power of the Russian Federation in the South Caucasus, so it is willing to help us”, – noted the analyst.