The Iranian regime options to cope with the nuclear issue and the international community expectations

Photo: Reuters


Following the US pullout from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iranian regime seemingly is engulfed in a state of bewilderment.

Shortly after Tramp announced withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Rouhani reacted and gave a speech.

His position was so weak that on the following day (May 9), Khamenei was forced to break his silence in order to balance the scene. In his speech, the supreme leader tried to redeem Rouhani’s frail stance with hollow bragger against the United States.

The reaction of the regime’s leaders to the United States’ pullout from JCPOA

The regime’s leaders had previously vowed that they would take proper measures in case of leaving the nuclear deal by the United States, an option could be resuming Uranium enrichment up to 20% within 4 days!

But now that the US has left the nuclear deal, none of the Iranian regime’s high- rank officials talks of a harsh response, frankly, from the very beginning the regimes’ official remarks were nothing but boasting to save their face.

At present, the Clerical regime is trying to gain European support to thwart the United States’ pressures. Both Khamenei and Rouhani have stated that their tendency is to remain in JCPOA alongside the three European states. Rouhani has said that the Iranian regime would cooperate with the Europe for a few weeks to try out if they keep their words, and in case of breaking promises by them, the Iranian regime would take proper action.

Is the continuation of the nuclear deal with Europe a realistic alternative for the US withdrawal from it?

But is the option of cooperating with Europe, as the main viewpoint offered by the Mullahs, a reliable path to get away from pressures, in spite of the fact that even Khamenei is unsure about Europeans’ honesty?

Indeed, this option and its outlook are under question, because following the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal, the leaders of the three European countries expressed their stance in a statement on calling the Iranian regime to comply with its commitments regarding the JCPOA as the pivot demand, and to answer the US proposals and concerns, the Iranian regime should agree with a long-term agreement to control the regime’s nuclear program after 2025, plus stopping its missile program and terrorist intervention in the Middle East region.

If the regime could deal with these conditions, it had already done. The Iranian regime’s demand to abandoning the sanctions is conditioned to the subjects relevant to its existence.

Infinite confusion of the Iranian regime after the US withdrawal of the JCPOA

Before leaving the JCPOA by the US, there were no clear stances by the Iranian regime, save some hollow bluffs for domestic usage to inspire its forces. Following the US pulling out of the JCPOA, the Iran regime was expected to get to the main point and to announce its view clearly.  But all the evidence indicates to the existing the same confusions inside the regime as before and particularly Khamenei’s speech shows that he is still pussyfooting..

Given the fact that the clerical regime, even after the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, is incapable of stating a decisive policy demonstrates the stalemated state that the regime is caught in. If the regime relents and relinquishes its both destructive policies in the region and ballistic missiles program, as Khamenei has mentioned before, is ‘the inception of an endless submission’ that drives a wedge in the regime and push it to the brink of falling apart.

Khamenei in his speech on May 9 once again reiterated the same concept. The missile program, the terrorist interference in the region, and the program for gaining nuclear weapon along with domestic suppression are all pillar components that preserve the clerical regime ruling Iran. Retreating from each element will weaken the foundations of the religious dictatorship and will pave the path for the Iranian people to uprise more than before.

On the other hand, if the clerical regime stands against the new conditions, before everything it has to accept the pressure resulted by coming sanctions. The situation quickly returns to the same conditions that the regime previously had, and to get rid of it, was forced to stagger to the negotiating table with the ‘bloody knees’.

At that juncture, the pressure of sanctions had left Khamenei in such a state of fear of the people uprising that to prevent the looming revolt and suffocating its regime, Khamenei, himself, secretly ordered the talks to be opened with the United States, to postpone the threats. Now, the same threats still exist.

The confusion inside the clerical regime is a result of an impasse situation. The main problem is that each path that the regime chooses to go into, either ‘drinking the poisonous chilies of halting its missile program and malign interfering in the region or standing against the demands of the international community, at the end of the path Iranian furious uprising is awaiting the criminal mullahs.

‌By Mahdavi Nasim
Mahdavi is an Author, Reporter, and Opposition Activist to the Iranian regime. He writes articles for iranfreedom.org/en/. You can follow him on Twitter @mahdavi85

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